Russia On The Prowl  – Current Geopolitical Tensions

The quest for power has time and again led to wars and bloodbaths. Now there’s a new fight brewing in the West that could impact the entire world.

Russia v/s Ukraine.

Both the US and the UK believe that Russia is soon going to invade Ukraine as it has parked several troops in Belarus, near the Ukrainian border.

However, both countries and also the European Union have threatened to impose sanctions on Russia if it actually attacks Ukraine. And these sanctions could disrupt the entire global economy.

Why is Russia after Ukraine?

To understand the entire situation, you need to know about Russia and Ukraine’s history. They are kind of like the India and Pakistan of the West.

Both of them initially belonged to the same bloc, the Soviet Union. But they both eventually split when the bloc broke down in 1991.

And when a big chunk of land breaks up into several parts, there are always border issues. So, Russia to some extent feels it has a claim on Ukraine. More so, there are even Russian supporters in Ukraine calling for separation.

And in 2014, Russia tried to exercise this claim over Ukraine by annexing Crimea, which was an autonomous region overseen by Ukraine. This was a bad move on Russia’s part. The major powers of the world obviously did not approve of this invasion of Crimea, so they did what they do best. Levied sanctions on Russia.

Now, compared to the olden times when countries waged war on each other when they were mad, issuing sanctions seems like a very mild reaction. But it isn’t. These sanctions on trade, economy and business can bankrupt a country. And that’s exactly what happened. The sanctions caused a financial crisis in Russia and it ended up losing around $140 billion per year!

The Current Situation

Now that we have got the history behind us, let’s look at why Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine right now.

But then of course, Russia has denied that it wants to invade Ukraine.

Well, well. Actions speak louder than words. And Russia has 100,000 troops stationed at Ukraine’s border.

But why now?

You see, Ukraine wants to become a part of NATO, which is a multi-country military alliance amongst around 30 countries. The main objective of NATO is to protect member countries from foreign military threats.

Now, if Ukraine becomes a part of NATO this organization comes closer home to Russia. This is scary for the country as several of its rivals, like the US, are part of NATO. And Russia claims this is why it has stationed troops at Ukraine’s borders. But the US and the UK don’t believe this.

And this million dollar question. Why is the world concerned wrt what happens between Russia & Ukraine ??More so, why we, who are so far away from all this, have to be concerned ??

The US and UK have to care because they signed a treaty in 1994 to protect Ukraine if it gave up its nuclear weapons.

So, if Russia attacks Ukraine will it lead to another World War? Thankfully, No. But the US, the UK, and the EU will impose sanctions on Russia for this new attack. And this impacts all of us.

Russia is one of the biggest suppliers of natural gas to Europe and has created a pipeline called the Nord Stream 2 to supply this gas easily to major countries in the continent. Now, one of the sanctions that these countries could impose on Russia is not to approve this pipeline, which will be a major setback for it.

But at the same time, it will leave Europe without a precious supply of natural gas, which could lead to power cuts and increase the price of electricity.

So why would European countries approve a sanction that they know would harm themselves?

Because it would impact Russia more. And not just financially. You see, the pipeline would give Putin great leverage over Europe. Russia could threaten to cut the supply of natural gas at any time to ensure that the EU would comply with its demands. So, the EU is cutting to the chase and beating Russia at its own game.

What’s worrying is that this whole game is not restricted to just Europe. In this global economy, each country is connected with the other through delicate webs. Russia is the  second biggest producer of oil. If these sanctions halt the trading of oil or if Russia itself decides to cut down supply, oil prices could touch the sky. Already these tensions have taken oil prices to a 7 year high.

If the conflict escalates any more, then the growth of global GDP growth would come down to 0.9% from the forecasted 4.9%

Plus, for India, this conflict has other direct consequences. To fight the US, Russia may strike an alliance with China (because the enemy of your enemy is your friend). This scenario would be disastrous for us. Because Russia provides India with a lot of weapons. If China, which is fighting with us for border control, asks Russia to cut ties with us, we would be in trouble.

And even if China and Russia don’t join hands, US sanctions on Russia could make weapons trade more difficult for us. See the problem now? This uncertainty has already caused global stocks to plunge.

So, Russia invading Ukraine is in no one’s best interests.

And many believe that Russia knows this very well. It has played its cards very nicely so it can negotiate with the US and other European countries.

But will the other countries be open to negotiations? Or will Russia eventually invade Ukraine?

Only time will tell…