Reality Check, Markets! 2013 VS Today.

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Reality Check, Markets! 2013 VS Today.

Remember 2013 ? Federal Reserve started its bond tapering and our markets fell viciously, like every other market in the world. Change in monetary policy stances, In accordance with a likely tapering of bond purchases & fears of inflation, is beginning to strain the international finance markets. Bond yields have risen sharply in both Advance & Emerging Market Economies. China’s Evergrande group fiasco continues to sour the mood.

The US dollar has strengthened sharply while Emerging Market currencies have weakened since early September, with capital outflows in recent weeks.

Is it different today, are we better off than 2013?

Let us examine some key data points & evaluate various facts. In 2013, we were a part of the “fragile five”. Our Current Account Deficit was high. It had touched 4.8%. As on 31st March 2021, it has ended in a modest surplus of 0.9% of GDP (Gross domestic product) .This surely is very heartening, Today GDP is fully financed by stable flows & hence there is no pressure on rupee.

Although fiscal deficit is high , it is not much of a concern today. While the huge foreign exchange reserves cannot protect the country from shocks, it would definitely help in keeping order. In FY21, India added over $100 billion to its forex reserves, which are still growing in FY22 so far & are at $637.5 billion today. This is more than double the level in 2013 when it was $292 billion, despite desperate measures taken by RBI to attract inflows.

 

Markets Become Volatile, If There Is Dollar Outflow.

In such a scenario RBI may enter the forex markets to contain the volatility and may not use any monetary policy instruments, as were used earlier. Such a huge & qualitative shift in policy mindset & pattern.

As an economy we are in a much healthier position then what we were in 2013.

 

Look At Some Of These Data Points

 

  • PMI (Purchase Manager’s Index) is higher in September, than in August’21Service sector continues to expand
  • CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation is trending down & is firmly within RBI’s target zone of 2-6%
  • WPI (Wholesale Price Index) is still high but the direction of change has been down
  • GST Collections are robust.
  • Exports have crossed the $30 billion mark for seventh straight month.
  • Cement production is up.
  • Our growth has been forecasted at 9.5% by both RBI & IMF.

 

All high frequency indicators point to gathering economic momentum. Credit growth & rising energy prices are the only worries, at this point in time.

 

Summing up, today our economy is on a very sound footing and definitely in a lot better position than where we were in 2013.Total insulation from global currents is a delusion. But presently both GOI & RBI seems to be working in tandem and this will help minimize the impact….The elephant, has started to dance!

 

TIME IN THE MARKET IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN TIMING THE MARKET

timing the markets

What is Market Timing?

 

Market timing is an investing strategy in which the investor tries to identify the best times to be in the market and when to get out. Proponents maintain that successfully forecasting the ups and downs of the market can result in higher returns than other strategies. Critics, however, note that changes in a market trend can appear suddenly and almost randomly, making the risk of misjudgment significant. Market timing is an investment strategy that involves going in and out of the market or switching asset classes based on predictions that attempt to measure how to market will move. The problem with this method is that it’s nearly impossible to accurately time the market even by successful Fund Managers across the world.

 

Market timing has its Disadvantages

 

One of the biggest costs of market timing is being out when the market unexpectedly surges upward, potentially missing some of the best-performing moments. For example, an investor, believing the market would go down, sells off equities and places the money in more conservative investments. While the money is out of stocks, the market instead enjoys a high-performing period. The investor has, therefore, incorrectly timed the market and missed those top months. Due to some quirk in human nature, we tend to be overconfident in our ability to predict the future. So we end up timing the market. Or at least trying to.

Mutual funds investors frequently try to time their systematic investments in response to the market’s ups and downs. When the market is falling, they stop their SIPs. When it is rising, they increase their SIP amounts. This invariably backfires.

The opposite of market timing is buying and holding as the market goes through its cycles.

Market timers often try to predict big wins in the investment markets, only to be disappointed by the reality of unexpected turns in performance. It’s true that market timing sometimes can appear to be beneficial. But for those who do not wish to subject their money to such a potentially risky strategy, time — not timing — could be the best alternative.

 

Time is Investor’s Best Friend

 

Clearly, time can be a better ally than timing. The best approach to your portfolio is to arm yourself with all the necessary information, and then take your questions to a financial advisor to help you with the final decision making. Above all, remember that both your long- and short-term investment decisions should be based on your financial needs and your ability to accept the risks that go along with each investment. Your financial advisor can help you determine which investments may be right for you.

 

 

Patience while Investing Pays BIG TIME!

 

Investors have been in tough situations in the past, the event that is still fresh in our memory being the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), where markets saw a flip flop ride initially which was finally followed by a swift recovery over medium to long term. Investors who tried to time the market during the crisis would have most likely repented while a patient investor who ignored the noise and remained invested would certainly be counting his fortunes today.

 

The below table shows the Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) of Rs 10,000 per month since 1st April 1998 in the NIFTY 50 Index and their market values during the 2008-09 GFC and after 5 and 10 years.

 

Date

Remarks

Total Months

Total Investment

Market Value(In Lakhs)

Sep 2007

1 Year before Global Financial Crisis

114

11.4

39.84

Sep 2008

Global Financial Crisis

126

12.6

32.06

Sep 2013

5 Years after Global Financial Crisis

186

18.6

53.98

Sep 2018

10 Years after Global Financial Crisis

246

24.6

110.74

 

 

As can be seen from the above table, the market value of SIP decreased from Rs 39.84 lakh to 32.06 lakh during the Global Financial Crisis. However, someone who would have continued their SIPs would have seen their wealth grow to Rs 53.98 lakh as of September 2013 (after 5 years of the GFC crisis) and Rs 110.74 lakh as of September 2018 (after 10 years of the GFC Crisis).

 

Since Last Year we were in a similar situation where the market value of SIP investment which was started 10 years (SIP of Rs 10,000 per month since 1st April 2010 in NIFTY 50 Index) back has seen a fall due to the outbreak of the pandemic and then we are witnessing Market upsurge and Long Term Visibility Looks Very Good in terms of Wealth Creation.

 

 

Date

Remarks

Total Months

Total Investment

Market Value(In Lakhs)

March 2019

1 Year Prior to COVID 19 Crisis

108

10.8

17.9

March 2020

COVID 19

120

12

14.07

March 2025

5 Year After COVID 19 Crisis

180

18

??

March 2030

10 Year After COVID 19 Crisis

240

24

??

 

 

Investors’ behavior becomes important during such times Like GFC, COVID 19, etc as emotions are at a greater play in situations when there is heightened volatility. Investors ‘Greed’ to chase returns and ‘Fear’ to stay away from falling markets usually keeps them at bay during tough times. The result is that the investor ends up sitting at the fence for a long time patiently investing to capture the right opportunity and multifold compounding returns.

 

 

TIME is a superpower. It works well even for the most Unlucky investor!

 

Let’s consider One investor invested only at the wrong time(invested just before any Major Market Fall). He didn’t take his money out after that and withstood all the future declines without panicking out.

This simple but difficult act of patience gave the portfolio a long enough time horizon to let compounding work its magic. While there is a natural tendency to shrug this off given the simplicity of the solution, here is some hard-hitting evidence.

 

Check out the returns of lumpsum investments in Nifty 50 TRI till date when invested right before the major falls of the past two decades.

 

 

Major Fall >20% Since 2000

 

Absolute Decline

Nifty 50 TRI Lumpsum CAGR(When

invested at Peak Just Before the Fall)

 

Debt

 

Inflation

2000 Dotcom Bubble

-50.00%

12.00%

8.00%

6.00%

2004 Indian Election Uncertainty-30%

-30.00%

14.00%

7.00%

6.00%

2006 Global Rate Hike Sell-Off

-30.00%

11.00%

8.00%

7.00%

2008 Global Financial Crisis

-59.00%

8.00%

8.00%

7.00%

2010 European Debt Crisis

-27.00%

10.00%

8.00%

7.00%

2015    Global     Market     Sell-Off(Yuan

Devaluation)

 

-22.00%

 

11.00%

 

8.00%

 

4.00%

2020 Covid Crash

-38.00%

19.00%

8.00%

4.00%

 

 

Summing it up

 

1-As seen above with the help of time even the most unlucky investor ended up with a reasonable outcome outperforming debt funds and inflation.

2-A simple SIP removes the need to time the markets and if given enough time provides a return that is almost as good as the hypothetical lucky market timer (who is difficult to exist in reality)!

3-If you have a long time horizon, a simple SIP in a few good equity funds for the next 10-15 years is all it takes to ensure a good investment outcome.

 

Do not let the inherent simplicity of the solution, undermine its ability to deliver the magic of compounding.

IMPORTANCE AND ADVANTAGES OF FOLLOWING ASSET ALLOCATION FOR ANY INVESTOR

Asset Allocation

Asset Allocation is an investment strategy which aims at investing in different assets classes (groups of different financial instruments) that helps in balancing the risk and returns in a portfolio in accordance to the investor’s goals, risk tolerance and investment horizon.

These are the different types of investments you should know about: For Example
• Stocks – You get this asset when you put money into a specific company. Essentially, when you buy shares, you’re getting pieces of that organization’s earnings and assets. Businesses sell stocks to raise funds. Shareholders get money by selling the stock for a higher price when its value increases. Another way to earn through this investment is through dividends, which the company regularly distributes to investors.
• Bonds – With this type, the bond issuer loans the money that you invested for their venture and repays the credit with interest. These investments have fewer risks, but also lower returns than stocks. You earn regularly through the organization’s payments.
• Mutual Funds – If you aren’t too keen on having to go through the trouble of finding the right combination of assets, mutual funds enable you to buy different investments in just one Portfolio. These organizations pool money from investors and use that amount to buy stocks and bonds through a professional manager.

Each asset Class carries with it a certain level of risk and expected return.

The importance of asset allocation lies in the overall risk-return performance of your portfolio.

Both asset allocation and rebalancing your portfolio when required, play an important part in having a well diversified and a disciplined portfolio. The number of benefits provided by these 2 relatively straightforward investment strategies is immense

1. Lower investment risk

A diversified portfolio will be exposed to lower investment risk, because the growth prospects are not limited to one risky security, but rather a basket of both risky and non-risky securities, across equity, debt, gold and real estate.
2. Low dependence on a single asset for returns within an asset class

Not all assets within a single asset class e.g. equity, perform well at the same time. This is what makes it important to choose different stocks and different categories of mutual funds, e.g. large cap, value style and so forth, and allocate funds efficiently even within the same category.

3. Protection from Market Turbulence

Anybody who has lived and invested through the sub-prime mortgage crisis knows that when equity caused the ground to fall out from under our feet, debt and gold kept investors’ heads above water. For those who had pure equity portfolios, it was a mistake they will likely never make again. A well diversified i.e. a well allocated portfolio will afford you protection and offer you growth even during times of volatility.

4. Freedom from timing the market

Consider timing a single asset class’s market. Those investors who try to actively time the equity markets can testify to its volatility. Now imagine timing the performance and market movement across different asset classes. Investing without stress is not hard to achieve, if you remove timing the market, or markets, and implement a disciplined strategy.


Asset Allocation is also different for investors with different goal time horizons.

For somebody with a short term investment horizon i.e. 3 – 5 years or less, it is advisable to allocate more funds towards fixed income, and allocate fewer funds in your portfolio to riskier assets such as gold or equity.

For a medium term investment horizon i.e. more than 5 years, your allocation to riskier asset classes can increase, to take advantage of the higher risk-reward ratio that these classes offer. However, maintain a healthy allocation to fixed income with low risk to balance your portfolio as your investment horizon reduces.

For a longer term investment horizon i.e. closer to 10 years, you can allocate a higher proportion of your funds to riskier asset classes, to take advantage of the power of compounding in your longer time horizon. Maintain some exposure, if not too high, to fixed income and gold to provide safe, fixed returns and to hedge against the risks of equity and inflation.


Asset allocation strategies can be

Conservative Moderate Aggressive
with more exposure to debt balance between debt and equity more exposure to equity

Determining the right asset allocation strategy will help you to successfully meet your long-term or short-term financial goals. For example, for long-term goals, an aggressive asset allocation strategy with more exposure to equity mutual funds may be preferred as it helps generate higher potential returns, while reducing risk and beating inflation. It may be better to invest in safer options or follow a conservative asset allocation strategy for short-term goals. Determining the right strategy will help you strike this balance.


Strategic asset allocation is a long term relatively passive approach. A fixed percentage of the portfolio is held in each asset class, usually via ETFs. The portfolio is rebalanced at regular intervals, or when it gets too far out of line with the desired allocations. The extent to which the portfolio is diversified will depend on the time horizon of the investor and their specific investment goals. Over time small incremental changes may be made to the asset allocation model, usually to reduce the risk as an investor approaches retirement age.


Tactical asset allocation is a more active approach in which allocations are adjusted based on market conditions and the relative valuations of various asset classes. This approach is often used within the equity portion of a fund to move capital from overvalued to undervalued sectors, countries or regions. Doing this effectively can significantly improve the risk-reward profile of a portfolio.
Tactical asset allocation can also be implemented by using momentum. With this approach the allocation to each asset class only remains invested when prices are rising. A moving average can be used as a trailing stop, and when the relevant instrument’s price falls below the moving average the allocation is moved to cash or another asset class.

Asset allocation decisions often have more impact on a portfolio’s performance than individual security selection. Combining uncorrelated assets can, not only reduce volatility but improve returns over time. A traditional asset mix will contain equities, bonds and cash. Adding alternative assets like real estate and hedge funds, especially Big Data and Artificial Intelligence driven vehicles like the Data Intelligence Fund, can provide a unique opportunity to further reduce volatility.