Is There A New World Order Coming

Is There A New World Order

Coming…..

The emergence of 2 BIG economies in Asia and an old challenger

from Europe, want their respective places under the sun.Is it about

time…

The game changing event , to an earlier prevailing world order,was

the first world war.How are events shaping out today ???

Is the concept of globalization getting threatened again ?? My two bit

on this please…

What comes to your mind when you hear the word “pizza”?

Domino’s Pizza, right?

What about mobile phones?

Apple or Samsung, isn’t it?

But what if these companies had never entered India? How different

would our world be?

And what if such foreign companies never get to enter India in the

future?

The Benefits of Globalisation

Globalisation has served India well. When India finally embraced it in

1991, our GDP improved massively,and our exports also grew by 20%

But the current scenario is threatening to overturn it.

US’ favourite weapon of war has been trade sanctions. It is the most

common move that is there in the playbook. And it’s not a new one.

During the first World War major countries were fighting each other and

the best way to win was to limit supplies. Countries which were spread

across the world had a distinct advantage.

The UK where most major businesses were located could simply stop

companies from supplying goods to enemy nations.

And something similar is happening right now. Major US and UK-based

companies are boycotting Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

But this is not the only thing threatening globalisation.

World trade has been impacted majorly since the 2007 US housing crisis

Since the world economy was so interconnected, the whole world felt

financial shockwaves from the crisis.

The Covid-19 pandemic and the various trade wars (like that between

US and China) have just highlighted the problems of globalisation.

So, many countries like Russia and China have worked hard to

become self-reliant. And now India is also moving towards the

same path of “aatmanirbharta.”

Though this concept has never been at odds with globalisation, it could

help safeguard our national interests in case of future wars and

pandemics.

But is self-reliance the ultimate solution?

Well, no. If it was, countries would never have agreed to forget all their

differences and come together to trade.

Self-reliance comes with its own set of problems- the most alarming

being stagnation of development.

Globalisation leads to exchange of innovation and ideas. The world as

we know it today, wouldn’t be so without globalisation.

So, what is the solution?
Well, one solution could be that companies separate business and
politics at least when it comes to international matters. But this is
becoming increasingly more difficult for businesses as customers and
stakeholders only want to support companies that are involved in social
matters.
A second solution could be building better supply chains so that
countries don’t have to opt for self-reliance just out of the fear of another
pandemic.
However, these solutions are weak and depend a lot on countries’
mutual cooperation. Something that doesn’t seem to be on the cards
right now.
Methinks,the world will have to wait till the geopolitical event around
Ukraine-Russia pans out to its logical conclusion.The new world order
which emerges after that,will lay foundations to the next leg of
globalisation.There will have to be some more players in the game &
rightly so.

Financial Independence To Retire Early (FIRE)

FIRE (Financial Independence To Retire Early) as a concept has been prevalent for a while. It largely means to live very frugally in the first 15 years of your professional life, save & invest aggressively, make your nest egg, retire when you are young and live the rest of your life doing what you would want to do. Chase your dreams & be out of the rat race. Is it required in the Indian context? Yes it is.

As more & more institutions want their top management to be young & their top deck to be lean, a top notch professional career doesn’t seem fulfilling after You hit the 45-50yr bracket. How many of us have the courage to kick start a new venture @ 50??

A low single digit number for sure.

But yes, all mutual fund investors, can create wealth in India to F.I.R.E.
Methodology is very simple & easy to achieve if you are disciplined in your approach & promise to stay invested. The asset class is equity, the product is Mutual Fund & the method is SIP (Systematic Investment Plan).The keyword here is “Time“.

How much time are you prepared to give your investments. If you invest a monthly amount of 50,000 for a time period of 12 years in a good equity scheme. You can generate a monthly income of 1,00,000 for 50 years & after 50 years ,You r still left with a corpus of 2.77 Cr.

Here are the workings for an SIP Investor to FIRE

Current Age – 33 years

Current Age 33 years
SIP start Date Nov-21
Investment Period 12  years
SIP Amount (Mthly) 50,000
Return Rate On Investment (XIRR) 12%
Corpus after 12 yrs 1.59 Cr
Retirement Age 45  years
Withdrawals – Month & Year Nov 2034 Onwards
Monthly withdrawal Amount 1 Lakh
Expected Rate Of Return On accumulated Corpus 8%
Withdrawal Duration 50  years  (till 2084)
Total withdrawn amount (Nov 2034 – Oct 2084) 6 Cr
Corpus Value after 50yrs (as on Oct – 2084) 2.77 Cr

TIME IN THE MARKET IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN TIMING THE MARKET

timing the markets

What is Market Timing?

 

Market timing is an investing strategy in which the investor tries to identify the best times to be in the market and when to get out. Proponents maintain that successfully forecasting the ups and downs of the market can result in higher returns than other strategies. Critics, however, note that changes in a market trend can appear suddenly and almost randomly, making the risk of misjudgment significant. Market timing is an investment strategy that involves going in and out of the market or switching asset classes based on predictions that attempt to measure how to market will move. The problem with this method is that it’s nearly impossible to accurately time the market even by successful Fund Managers across the world.

 

Market timing has its Disadvantages

 

One of the biggest costs of market timing is being out when the market unexpectedly surges upward, potentially missing some of the best-performing moments. For example, an investor, believing the market would go down, sells off equities and places the money in more conservative investments. While the money is out of stocks, the market instead enjoys a high-performing period. The investor has, therefore, incorrectly timed the market and missed those top months. Due to some quirk in human nature, we tend to be overconfident in our ability to predict the future. So we end up timing the market. Or at least trying to.

Mutual funds investors frequently try to time their systematic investments in response to the market’s ups and downs. When the market is falling, they stop their SIPs. When it is rising, they increase their SIP amounts. This invariably backfires.

The opposite of market timing is buying and holding as the market goes through its cycles.

Market timers often try to predict big wins in the investment markets, only to be disappointed by the reality of unexpected turns in performance. It’s true that market timing sometimes can appear to be beneficial. But for those who do not wish to subject their money to such a potentially risky strategy, time — not timing — could be the best alternative.

 

Time is Investor’s Best Friend

 

Clearly, time can be a better ally than timing. The best approach to your portfolio is to arm yourself with all the necessary information, and then take your questions to a financial advisor to help you with the final decision making. Above all, remember that both your long- and short-term investment decisions should be based on your financial needs and your ability to accept the risks that go along with each investment. Your financial advisor can help you determine which investments may be right for you.

 

 

Patience while Investing Pays BIG TIME!

 

Investors have been in tough situations in the past, the event that is still fresh in our memory being the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), where markets saw a flip flop ride initially which was finally followed by a swift recovery over medium to long term. Investors who tried to time the market during the crisis would have most likely repented while a patient investor who ignored the noise and remained invested would certainly be counting his fortunes today.

 

The below table shows the Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) of Rs 10,000 per month since 1st April 1998 in the NIFTY 50 Index and their market values during the 2008-09 GFC and after 5 and 10 years.

 

Date

Remarks

Total Months

Total Investment

Market Value(In Lakhs)

Sep 2007

1 Year before Global Financial Crisis

114

11.4

39.84

Sep 2008

Global Financial Crisis

126

12.6

32.06

Sep 2013

5 Years after Global Financial Crisis

186

18.6

53.98

Sep 2018

10 Years after Global Financial Crisis

246

24.6

110.74

 

 

As can be seen from the above table, the market value of SIP decreased from Rs 39.84 lakh to 32.06 lakh during the Global Financial Crisis. However, someone who would have continued their SIPs would have seen their wealth grow to Rs 53.98 lakh as of September 2013 (after 5 years of the GFC crisis) and Rs 110.74 lakh as of September 2018 (after 10 years of the GFC Crisis).

 

Since Last Year we were in a similar situation where the market value of SIP investment which was started 10 years (SIP of Rs 10,000 per month since 1st April 2010 in NIFTY 50 Index) back has seen a fall due to the outbreak of the pandemic and then we are witnessing Market upsurge and Long Term Visibility Looks Very Good in terms of Wealth Creation.

 

 

Date

Remarks

Total Months

Total Investment

Market Value(In Lakhs)

March 2019

1 Year Prior to COVID 19 Crisis

108

10.8

17.9

March 2020

COVID 19

120

12

14.07

March 2025

5 Year After COVID 19 Crisis

180

18

??

March 2030

10 Year After COVID 19 Crisis

240

24

??

 

 

Investors’ behavior becomes important during such times Like GFC, COVID 19, etc as emotions are at a greater play in situations when there is heightened volatility. Investors ‘Greed’ to chase returns and ‘Fear’ to stay away from falling markets usually keeps them at bay during tough times. The result is that the investor ends up sitting at the fence for a long time patiently investing to capture the right opportunity and multifold compounding returns.

 

 

TIME is a superpower. It works well even for the most Unlucky investor!

 

Let’s consider One investor invested only at the wrong time(invested just before any Major Market Fall). He didn’t take his money out after that and withstood all the future declines without panicking out.

This simple but difficult act of patience gave the portfolio a long enough time horizon to let compounding work its magic. While there is a natural tendency to shrug this off given the simplicity of the solution, here is some hard-hitting evidence.

 

Check out the returns of lumpsum investments in Nifty 50 TRI till date when invested right before the major falls of the past two decades.

 

 

Major Fall >20% Since 2000

 

Absolute Decline

Nifty 50 TRI Lumpsum CAGR(When

invested at Peak Just Before the Fall)

 

Debt

 

Inflation

2000 Dotcom Bubble

-50.00%

12.00%

8.00%

6.00%

2004 Indian Election Uncertainty-30%

-30.00%

14.00%

7.00%

6.00%

2006 Global Rate Hike Sell-Off

-30.00%

11.00%

8.00%

7.00%

2008 Global Financial Crisis

-59.00%

8.00%

8.00%

7.00%

2010 European Debt Crisis

-27.00%

10.00%

8.00%

7.00%

2015    Global     Market     Sell-Off(Yuan

Devaluation)

 

-22.00%

 

11.00%

 

8.00%

 

4.00%

2020 Covid Crash

-38.00%

19.00%

8.00%

4.00%

 

 

Summing it up

 

1-As seen above with the help of time even the most unlucky investor ended up with a reasonable outcome outperforming debt funds and inflation.

2-A simple SIP removes the need to time the markets and if given enough time provides a return that is almost as good as the hypothetical lucky market timer (who is difficult to exist in reality)!

3-If you have a long time horizon, a simple SIP in a few good equity funds for the next 10-15 years is all it takes to ensure a good investment outcome.

 

Do not let the inherent simplicity of the solution, undermine its ability to deliver the magic of compounding.

Tax Loss Harvesting and Its Advantages,in Investment Parlance

Tax Loss

Tax Loss Harvesting and Its Advantages,in Investment Parlance

Investors adopt this strategy during the financial year-end.Also this approach can be executed at any time of the year.


In this approach,an investor tends to sell the equities or equities dominated instruments which are experiencing a fall in their value. These securities are sold if an investor believes that there is a bleak chance of them,rebounding from current levels.

This loss thus booked gets adjusted to the capital gains booked in other securities in the portfolio.This strategy lowers the net capital gain for investor, thereby reducing his tax liability for the year.

Simple Steps for Tax Harvesting

1. Identify stocks that have seen a constant decline and ones that have lost enough value that they may not recover soon enough.
2. Sell them off and book losses. The capital losses can be offsetted against capital gains you have made in your portfolio.Long term capital losses can be set off only against long term capital gains, but short term capital losses can be set off against both short term and long term capital gains in your holdings.

How to Maintain Asset Allocation Post Applying Tax Loss Harvesting Strategy

Investors cud also buy shares of the same sector from the sale proceeds he received after booking losses, to maintain sectoral balance of the portfolio and healthy diversification.

Important Capital Gain Tax Rules For Better Personal Finance and Tax Loss Harvesting Rules

Short-term gains can’t be used to set-off Long-term losses.
1. An investor shud estimate tax liability before executing any loss-making trades.
2. An investor shud assess the risk-return profile of an instrument before investing the released capital
3. This method shud be used only for tax saving. It shudn’t drive investments.

To conclude, tax loss harvesting is an important concept which helps in reducing the tax liability that may arise, due to profits booked in both short-term and long-term investments

Long-term capital loss (LTCL) arising out of sale of any capital asset can be used to set off Long term capital gains arising out of sale of any capital asset.


STCL can be used to set off both STCG and LTCG.LTCL can be used to set off only LTCG.


You cud use these set offs across asset classes too.


You can use STCL from sale of debt mutual funds to set off STCG from the sale of equity funds/shares/debt funds/gold/bonds/real estate etc.

You can use STCL from your stocks/equity funds to set off STCG or LTCG from debt mutual funds or other capital assets or even STCG or LTCG on equities booked earlier in the year.


Summarising,U can harvest your losses and make money out of it,if U apply yourself intelligently !!!

7 bonus ideas you need in your life!

It’s the end of another financial year, and many of you will be receiving your annual performance bonus. Exciting time, isn’t it? I bet you’ve got fantastic plans of how to splurge it. I’ve got them too, with a little boring, but necessary checklist I thought I should share.

I hope that maybe it helps you too. Without further ado, here’s 7 bonus ideas you need in your life.

  1. Pay off debt:Credit card bills, student loans, vehicle or home loans, you could have any of these. It might be a good idea to pay these bills and also set aside some money for any future loans you may be considering. This will minimise the principal amount you owe and you can save on hefty interest payments.
  2. Add to your retirement fund:Your retirement may be a long way off, but no one tells you it’s one of the first goals you should start saving for. Why? Look at cost of living today. If you spend 30,000 a month today as living expenses, 20 years down the line assuming inflation is at 6%, you’ll be spending 1.72 lakhs a month. Start putting aside a little by little with a Systematic Investment Plan in mutual funds to build wealth for your retirement. You can also invest in NPS and PPF for relative safety. Use a retirement calculator to figure out how much your SIP amount should be.
  3. Build an emergency fund:Life is unpredictable. So, isn’t it a smart move to be prepared? You may lose your job, or your company isn’t doing well and can’t pay salaries, or for some reason, there is little or no income. It’s ideal to have at least 6 months of expenses saved in an emergency fund. Do not touch this unless it truly is an emergency. Consider a liquid fund for this. Frivolous purchases are not emergencies and can be planned.
  4. Invest for longer term, big ticket goals: You’ve got a lumpsum in hand, why blow it all up now? You may want to purchase a car in the future, make the down payment on a house, fund your child’s higher education, or even start a business. Whatever your goal may be, no matter how far, start setting aside funds today for it. You can even start a SIPin mutual funds. Time and compounding will work for you.
  5. Get insurance: Ever considered who will take care of your family should anything happen to you? Get a term plan to secure your family financially in case you die. The earlier you get it, the lesser the premiums cost. Don’t delay this until next year.
  6. Buy health cover for your family: Health is wealth, and when your bonus can help you secure your family’s health, why not? There could be a time when your employer’s health cover may not be enough to cover all expenses. Consider purchasing a family floater health plan.

Invest in yourself: An investment in yourself is the best investment. Take a course, learn a skill, join the gym, read! Meet people, socialise, and don’t forget to have fun. You’ve earned it.