Nickel The other Commodity

Nickel…The other Commodity

Oil prices are going sky-high and have become a huge cause of concern
But oil is not the only commodity that is rising.
On 9th March Nickel also broke all records by rising 111% to $100,000 /
tonne The rise was so huge & impactful that the London Metal Exchange
(LME) had to halt nickel trading. Let us analyse this phenomenon
What is a Short Squeeze…
If you notice, how for the last two years the root cause of everything was
COVID? Seems like this year’s root cause is going to be the Russia-
Ukraine war.
Russia is the third largest producer of nickel. But, have the supplies
been threatened so much that the prices have shot up 111%?
Not really. The real reason is technical & in investment parlance ,called a
short squeeze.
When people trade in futures contracts, they can take bets on whether
the price of a commodity or stock will rise (a long call) or fall (a short
call).
The second process is called short selling When people take such long
or short bets, they don’t own the commodity. They are just borrowing it.
Yes, that’s a thing you can do: borrow commodities and sell them on the
market.But what is borrowed must be returned.
So, essentially what short-sellers do is borrow when the price is high and
sell it. Wait for the price to fall, buy the commodity at that point in time
and return it to the exchange.But then here is the catch….

What if the price the commodity doesn’t fall?

Then you have a situation like the current one.

For the last few months, major market players including the Chinese

Tsingshan Holding Group (the world’s largest nickel and steel producer)

had been shorting nickel, betting that its prices would go down.

But the prices went up.

Now, as these people were just borrowing the nickel, they had to pay a

margin or a fee to secure their short position.

This margin keeps increasing if your bet goes wrong.

So, if you’re hoping nickel prices will fall and they rise, you have to keep

paying additional money to hold that short position until the price actually

falls and you can buy nickel at a low price.

But since the price rose so much, the short-sellers didn’t have enough

money to pay their margins.

They had to buy nickel at the super inflated price as they now had to

close their position and return the commodity to the exchange.

Now, what happens when you buy a lot of one commodity at the same

time?

The price rises further!

That’s exactly what pushed nickel to record highs on 9th March

And Tsinghshan is now looking down at losses worth $8 billion

This was a historic short squeeze. But this is definitely not the first time

this has happened.

Back in 1985 LME had to stop tin trading for five years because of a

similar incident gone wrong.

The high nickel prices will impact certain industries like the electric

vehicle industry which uses nickel to make EV batteries.

But most of us won’t be affected as nickel is not a staple commodity like

oil or food.

Moreover, analysts are betting prices will fall soon. Because a number of

Chinese nickel mining plants are currently being set up in Indonesia,

which will boost supply again.

So, it is still the rising oil prices that we need to worry about.

IMPORTANCE AND ADVANTAGES OF FOLLOWING ASSET ALLOCATION FOR ANY INVESTOR

Asset Allocation

Asset Allocation is an investment strategy which aims at investing in different assets classes (groups of different financial instruments) that helps in balancing the risk and returns in a portfolio in accordance to the investor’s goals, risk tolerance and investment horizon.

These are the different types of investments you should know about: For Example
• Stocks – You get this asset when you put money into a specific company. Essentially, when you buy shares, you’re getting pieces of that organization’s earnings and assets. Businesses sell stocks to raise funds. Shareholders get money by selling the stock for a higher price when its value increases. Another way to earn through this investment is through dividends, which the company regularly distributes to investors.
• Bonds – With this type, the bond issuer loans the money that you invested for their venture and repays the credit with interest. These investments have fewer risks, but also lower returns than stocks. You earn regularly through the organization’s payments.
• Mutual Funds – If you aren’t too keen on having to go through the trouble of finding the right combination of assets, mutual funds enable you to buy different investments in just one Portfolio. These organizations pool money from investors and use that amount to buy stocks and bonds through a professional manager.

Each asset Class carries with it a certain level of risk and expected return.

The importance of asset allocation lies in the overall risk-return performance of your portfolio.

Both asset allocation and rebalancing your portfolio when required, play an important part in having a well diversified and a disciplined portfolio. The number of benefits provided by these 2 relatively straightforward investment strategies is immense

1. Lower investment risk

A diversified portfolio will be exposed to lower investment risk, because the growth prospects are not limited to one risky security, but rather a basket of both risky and non-risky securities, across equity, debt, gold and real estate.
2. Low dependence on a single asset for returns within an asset class

Not all assets within a single asset class e.g. equity, perform well at the same time. This is what makes it important to choose different stocks and different categories of mutual funds, e.g. large cap, value style and so forth, and allocate funds efficiently even within the same category.

3. Protection from Market Turbulence

Anybody who has lived and invested through the sub-prime mortgage crisis knows that when equity caused the ground to fall out from under our feet, debt and gold kept investors’ heads above water. For those who had pure equity portfolios, it was a mistake they will likely never make again. A well diversified i.e. a well allocated portfolio will afford you protection and offer you growth even during times of volatility.

4. Freedom from timing the market

Consider timing a single asset class’s market. Those investors who try to actively time the equity markets can testify to its volatility. Now imagine timing the performance and market movement across different asset classes. Investing without stress is not hard to achieve, if you remove timing the market, or markets, and implement a disciplined strategy.


Asset Allocation is also different for investors with different goal time horizons.

For somebody with a short term investment horizon i.e. 3 – 5 years or less, it is advisable to allocate more funds towards fixed income, and allocate fewer funds in your portfolio to riskier assets such as gold or equity.

For a medium term investment horizon i.e. more than 5 years, your allocation to riskier asset classes can increase, to take advantage of the higher risk-reward ratio that these classes offer. However, maintain a healthy allocation to fixed income with low risk to balance your portfolio as your investment horizon reduces.

For a longer term investment horizon i.e. closer to 10 years, you can allocate a higher proportion of your funds to riskier asset classes, to take advantage of the power of compounding in your longer time horizon. Maintain some exposure, if not too high, to fixed income and gold to provide safe, fixed returns and to hedge against the risks of equity and inflation.


Asset allocation strategies can be

Conservative Moderate Aggressive
with more exposure to debt balance between debt and equity more exposure to equity

Determining the right asset allocation strategy will help you to successfully meet your long-term or short-term financial goals. For example, for long-term goals, an aggressive asset allocation strategy with more exposure to equity mutual funds may be preferred as it helps generate higher potential returns, while reducing risk and beating inflation. It may be better to invest in safer options or follow a conservative asset allocation strategy for short-term goals. Determining the right strategy will help you strike this balance.


Strategic asset allocation is a long term relatively passive approach. A fixed percentage of the portfolio is held in each asset class, usually via ETFs. The portfolio is rebalanced at regular intervals, or when it gets too far out of line with the desired allocations. The extent to which the portfolio is diversified will depend on the time horizon of the investor and their specific investment goals. Over time small incremental changes may be made to the asset allocation model, usually to reduce the risk as an investor approaches retirement age.


Tactical asset allocation is a more active approach in which allocations are adjusted based on market conditions and the relative valuations of various asset classes. This approach is often used within the equity portion of a fund to move capital from overvalued to undervalued sectors, countries or regions. Doing this effectively can significantly improve the risk-reward profile of a portfolio.
Tactical asset allocation can also be implemented by using momentum. With this approach the allocation to each asset class only remains invested when prices are rising. A moving average can be used as a trailing stop, and when the relevant instrument’s price falls below the moving average the allocation is moved to cash or another asset class.

Asset allocation decisions often have more impact on a portfolio’s performance than individual security selection. Combining uncorrelated assets can, not only reduce volatility but improve returns over time. A traditional asset mix will contain equities, bonds and cash. Adding alternative assets like real estate and hedge funds, especially Big Data and Artificial Intelligence driven vehicles like the Data Intelligence Fund, can provide a unique opportunity to further reduce volatility.